How Donald Trump Achieved a Breakthrough in the Middle East But Struggles Regarding Vladimir Putin Concerning the Ukraine Conflict
Accounts of an impending American-Russian presidential summit have been overstated, it seems.
Only a few days after President Trump announced he planned to meet Russian President Putin in Budapest - "within two weeks or so" - the high-level talks has been suspended indefinitely.
A preliminary get-together by the both countries' top diplomats has been cancelled, too.
"I prefer not to have a fruitless discussion," Donald Trump informed the press at the White House on Tuesday afternoon. "I don't want a pointless effort, so I'll see what transpires."
- Donald Trump states he wished to avoid a 'wasted meeting' after arrangement for negotiations with Putin postponed
- Disappointment in Ukraine's capital as President Zelensky departs Washington empty-handed
The on-again, off-again meeting is just the latest twist in Trump's efforts to mediate an conclusion to hostilities in Ukraine – a topic of renewed focus for the US president after he arranged a ceasefire and hostage release deal in the Palestinian territory.
During a speech in Egypt recently to commemorate that ceasefire agreement, the president addressed his lead diplomatic negotiator, with a new request.
"We have to get the Russian situation done," he said.
Nonetheless, the conditions that converged to make a Gaza breakthrough possible for Witkoff and his team may be challenging to duplicate in a Ukraine war that has been raging for nearing four years.
Reduced Influence
Per the lead negotiator, the key to achieving a deal was Israel's move to attack representatives of Hamas in Qatar. It was a action that angered US partners in the Arab world but provided the president bargaining power to compel Israel's leader Benjamin Netanyahu into reaching an agreement.
Trump benefited from a long record of siding with the Israeli state since his first term, encompassing his decision to move the US embassy to the contested city, to alter America's position on the lawfulness of Israeli settlements in the West Bank and, in recent times, his backing for Israeli defense operations against Iran.
The American leader, actually, is better regarded among Israelis than their prime minister – a situation that gave him special sway over the nation's head.
Add in the president's connections in politics and business to influential Arab nations in the region, and he had a wealth of diplomatic muscle to secure an agreement.
In the Ukraine war, by contrast, Trump has much less influence. In recent months, he has vacillated between efforts to strong-arm the Russian president and then Zelensky, all with little seeming effect.
The US leader has threatened to enact new sanctions on Russian energy exports and to provide Ukraine with new long-range weapons. But he has also recognised that doing so could disrupt the world's financial stability and intensify the conflict.
Meanwhile, the president has criticized openly Zelensky, halting briefly intelligence-sharing with the country and pausing weapon deliveries to the nation - then to back off in the face of worried European partners who warn a Ukrainian collapse could destabilise the entire region.
The president often boasts about his skill to meet and hammer out agreements, but his face-to-face meetings with both Putin and Zelensky haven't seemed to advance the war any closer to a resolution.
The Russian president may actually be using Trump's desire for a deal – and faith in in-person deal-making - as a method of influencing him.
In July, Russia's leader consented to a summit in the US state just as it appeared likely that the president would approve on congressional sanctions package supported by Senate Republicans. That legislation was afterwards put on hold.
Last week, as news emerged that the White House was considering seriously sending Tomahawk cruise missiles and air defense systems to Kyiv, the Russian leader phoned Trump who then touted the potential meeting in Budapest.
The next day, the president hosted Ukraine's leader at the White House, but departed empty-handed after a allegedly strained discussion.
Trump maintained that he was not being manipulated by Putin.
"You know, I've been played all my life by the best of them, and I came out successfully," he remarked.
But the Ukrainian leader subsequently made note of the timeline of developments.
"Once the issue of long-range mobility became a little further away for Ukraine – for our nation – the Russian side almost automatically became less interested in negotiations," he said.
Thus, in a matter of days, Trump has shifted from considering the idea of sending missiles to Ukraine to organizing a Budapest summit with Putin and confidentially urging the Ukrainian president to cede all of Donbas – including territory Russian forces has been unable to conquer.
He has ultimately settled on calling for a ceasefire along present frontlines – a proposal the Russian government has refused to accept.
During his election campaign previously, Trump promised that he could resolve the Ukraine war in a very short time. He has since abandoned that commitment, saying that concluding the war is turning out more difficult than he anticipated.
It has been a uncommon admission of the constraints of his authority – and the difficulty of establishing a peace plan when both parties wants, or is able to, give up the fight.