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Residents of the Big Apple will discover who will be their next mayor this Tuesday, in a contest that will determine who runs and protects the nation's largest city at a moment when the former president has threatened to send armed forces to the city.

In this context, New York has witnessed a mayoral election that has matched two very different Democratic figures against one another. The election has become an increasingly bitter face-off, laced with alleged racial bias and anti-Muslim sentiment, but it is the ideological divide between the two main contenders that could have significant consequences for how the party fares in next year's congressional races.

The Rising Progressive

On the left side is Zohran Mamdani, the 34-year-old progressive candidate whose rapid ascent and grassroots campaign has brought global notice. Representing the old guard is the former governor, the former Democratic New York governor now running as an independent – and enjoying the support of wealthy contributors and corporations.

With days to go, it is Mamdani, the one-time underdog who defeated his opponent in the Democratic primary who is solidly positioned as the frontrunner. Mamdani, who has campaigned on a platform of economic justice and pledged to halt rent increases for about two million city residents, has led his rival by double-digits in every poll taken in the fall, and it is very much the progressive's election to lose.

A Bitter Contest

Yet, Cuomo, who resigned as governor in 2021 amid allegations of sexual harassment, has stated clearly he will battle to the end, and not necessarily in an above-the-belt manner. He has trashed his opponent's objectives as unrealistic, and in the final stretch laughed as a broadcaster made Islamophobic remarks about Mamdani, who is a Muslim. Recently, Cuomo was strongly criticized as bigoted after sharing an artificial intelligence video that featured a slew of racist stereotypes and showed Mamdani freeing a group of criminals.

It's been a particularly ugly end to an election that could be key to the path that the Democratic party, struggling in its response to Trump's power moves, takes in the coming years.

National Implications

If the progressive wins convincingly, the party establishment who have refused to endorse his campaign will be compelled to address a message that has appealed to voters' frustration at economic disparity, inflation and the political elite. It would be difficult for the Senate leader and the House leader not to adopt at least some of the candidate's ambitious ideas about economic justice, given the fresh face has generated an enthusiasm within the Democratic ranks perhaps not witnessed since the Vermont senator ran for president eight years ago.

However, if the former governor, who had been expected to win easily in the June primary, complete a remarkable riches-to-rags-to-riches victory, it could reinforce the party's existing approach of considered, lackluster opposition – a strategy that has angered grassroots members. A NYC defeat of the progressive's optimistic platform could persuade party leaders that the best plan is to remain in the political center – even as surveys show the present version of the Democratic party is widely disliked nationwide.

Campaign Energy

Residents of New York seem to prefer the progressive agenda. Surveys show that Mamdani supporters are much more excited about their candidate than Cuomo backers, something that has been apparent during the race. Mamdani's snappy videos on digital platforms, his optimistic vision for New York and his willingness to actually venture out and meet people in the metropolis has drawn an army of more than 50,000 volunteers, many of them young or first-time voters.

Negative Tactics

Yet, the former governor, in his late sixties, isn't giving up. And with the risks stacked against him, the former governor has turned to negative campaigning in the final days.

After spending months launching various attacks at Mamdani to see what might stick, Cuomo has narrowed his focus on targeting the candidate personally. He has called his rival, who was born in Uganda to South Asian heritage, an "radical", and popped up on Fox Business for an discussion with Maria Bartiromo, where the candidate asserted New York “will not survive” his opponent as mayor. It reached a nadir last week, when the former governor chuckled and said “that’s another problem” after a broadcaster said Mamdani would “cheer” another 9/11-style attack.

Campaign Dynamics

The line of attack echoes much of what the former president, who has sent the military reserves to Washington DC and threatened to do the same to NYC, has said about Mamdani, and perhaps that shouldn’t come as a surprise. A set of wealthy residents, including some who contributed to Trump in the last presidential race, have invested heavily into trying to elect the independent elected, as other influential figures have urged Curtis Sliwa to withdraw from the race.

Candidate Backgrounds

For the Cuomo camp, and his billionaire supporters, are concerned, it should not have reached to this point. When Mamdani, one of one hundred fifty New York state assembly members, started his campaign for mayor in last year, few had known him, and in truth, few even paid attention.

The former governor, by contrast, eased his way into the contest in March 2025 and became the immediate frontrunner. He was the political heavyweight who apparently held all the advantages. The quintessential establishment figure, he had wed a political dynasty member and served in Bill Clinton’s administration. He became New York governor in over a decade ago, seventeen years after his father, the former governor, stepped down from the identical role.

Mamdani, who was elected to the New York state assembly in 2020, does not have the comparable background. But his dedication to providing free buses and affordable child services – along with the freeze-the-rent pledge – offer a more positive vision of the city's direction than Cuomo’s pessimistic predictions about “mayhem” and rising criminal activity, and his vow to hire more police officers.

Campaign Controversies

Nevertheless, the candidate has faced difficulties in recent days, after footage surfaced suggesting him implying the New York police department and the IDF were connected.

“We have to make clear that when the pressure of the NYPD is on your throat, it’s been influenced by the Israeli military,” the candidate said in the clip, filmed at a DSA gathering in 2023. Mamdani, a vocal opponent of Israel who has said the nation is engaging in atrocities in Gaza, suggested he was criticizing cooperative programs between the NYPD and Israeli forces.

Emotional Response

As the race closes, Mamdani seems to have gained empathy and backing, however, for his reaction to his opponent's escalating attacks.

Mamdani addressed the independent's terrorism comments in an emotional video. In it, the candidate recalled how, when he first ran for the legislature, a Muslim uncle advised to him that he did not have to tell people about his religion. It was a realization, Mamdani said, that many Muslim New Yorkers had been told “again and again”: “That security could only be found in the shadows of our city. That it is in those shadows alone where Muslims could express their full identities, and that if we were to emerge from those seclusion, then it is in those shadows that we must set aside our faith.”

Speaking to the actions of Cuomo and Sliwa, who has alleged Mamd